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NEWS JUNE 22, 2020 ¦ 19

‘Baby Bust’ May Be Another Byproduct of
COVID-19 Pandemic

By Frank Ready

The economic and public health fallout of
the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an
impending “baby bust.” A new report pub-
lished by Brookings suggests that the U.S. could
see a decline of between 300,000 to 500,000 births
if the labor market continues to suffer beyond
this year.
Economic factors have impacted birth rates
throughout history, say authors Melissa S. Kearney,
a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings, and Phil-
lip Levine, a professor of economics at Wellesley
College.
“In the analytical terms of economic modeling,
adults ‘choose’ the quantity of children that maxi-
mizes their lifetime well-being subject to the costs
associated with childbearing. Such a framework Shutterstock

predicts, all else equal, that a higher level of lifetime But it’s not just the economics that could poten-
income leads people to have more children,” reads tially drive the number of U.S. births downward.
the report. The psychological effects of the pandemic could also
However, Kearney and Levine use the historical have a lasting impact, an argument that the report
context of the Great Recession of 2002- 2009 and grounds in the fallout from the 1918 Spanish Flu,
the 1918 Spanish Flu to illustrate that the opposite is which saw a 12.5% drop in birth rates.
true as well. For example, the report cites a 9% drop “The drop in births that resulted from the Span-
from 2007- 2012 in the rate of births per women ish flu was likely due to the uncertainty and anxiety
ages 15 to 44, which equates to nearly 400,000 fewer that a public health crisis can generate, which could
births. affect people’s desire to give birth, and also biologi-
Parallels to 2020 may be found in an economy that cally affect pregnancy and birth outcomes,” reads
has been similarly battered into a recession, only the report.
this time by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The However, Kearney and Levine suggested that
report points to Federal Reserve forecasts that place COVID-19’s impact on birthing rates could be more
the unemployment rate at 9.3% through the end of severe than the Spanish flu, since wartime needs
the year, as well as other predictions that estimate were continuing to drive manufacturing in 1918 de-
42% of recent job losses will be permanent. spite the spread of the disease.
Kearney and Levine expect birth rates to respond They anticipate that the psychological impact of
accordingly. “An analysis of the Great Recession the pandemic as well as lasting job losses will result
leads us to predict that women will have many fewer in at least a 7 to 10% drop in births next year.
babies in the short term, and for some of them, a “We expect that many of these births will not just
lower total number of children over their lifetimes,” be delayed – but will never happen. There will be a
reads the report. COVID-19 baby bust,” reads the report.
¦

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